# Most births happen before 38 weeks????



## pageta (Nov 17, 2003)

My mom is coming to visit when I'm 39 weeks and someone at church told her this weekend that their OB says most births happen before 38 weeks, as though she's not going to be here in time to take care of my boys during our birth. How on earth would you come up with a statistic like that? I told my parents that you might get such a statistic if you only took into consideration scheduled c-sections and perhaps elective inductions because the mom was tired of being pregnant. But seriously - how on earth would you come up with a statistic like that?


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## syd'smom (Sep 23, 2008)

hogwash! Only 10% of babes are born on their "due date", which is why I'm not telling mine.







I give like a 3-4 week range, before and after my due date.


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## littlebb (Apr 15, 2009)

I would agree with you that this is the case when fully natural births aren't considered. Inductions and scheduled c-sections are so commonplace now that this seems to be the case. I am 41+4 today and I hate going out in public because women always freak out that I haven't been induced yet (they were already acting like that when I was only 39 weeks!). The statistics my midwife has for her practice (she's done over 550 homebirths) shows that for women who choose totally natural births and for labor to start naturally, most women - especially first time mothers - deliver between 41 and 43 weeks. I would ask to see the person's sources!


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## purplepaperclip (May 19, 2008)

Definitely do not agree with the 38 weeks thing, but if memory serves, I believe a poll (obviously not scientific, but anecdata) was on MDC not too long ago re:"when you gave birth". The outcome was a beautiful bell curve right at 40 weeks. I believe 40 weeks is the AVERAGE for a reason. Not to say some don't go before and some won't go after, but it rather the middle ground. Don't stress it.


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## littlebb (Apr 15, 2009)

Quote:


Originally Posted by *syd'smom* 
hogwash! Only 10% of babes are born on their "due date", which is why I'm not telling mine.







I give like a 3-4 week range, before and after my due date.

Such good advice! We have totally avoided giving a due date, but in hindsight, now that I'm past 41 weeks, I wish we would've just flat out lied from the beginning and automatically tacked on 4 weeks to our EDD. That way, if I would've delivered in a somewhat timely manner, it would've been early and considered 'okay' or 'safe' by everyone else's standards.


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## philomom (Sep 12, 2004)

I went early all three times, at 35, 36 and 38 weeks naturally. But I believe all women should be allowed to go into labor on their own.


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## Mamatoabunch (Sep 23, 2007)

Not in my case, only one single before 38, rest around 39ish.


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## MegBoz (Jul 8, 2008)

Quote:


Originally Posted by *pageta* 
you might get such a statistic if you only took into consideration scheduled c-sections and perhaps elective inductions









:
exactly.
I think the actual average gestation length in the US is now actually 38.5W. (I did a quick search for the article that was in the news recently, but didn't find it.)
Yes, exactly as you said - all those CS + induction skew the #s.









_Actually_ averages of "uncomplicated gestation" can be found by meta-analysis research conducted by a Dr. Mittendorf in the 1990s. For first-time moms who were white it was 41W4D, slightly shorter for primiparas (women who'd already given birth) & other ethnic groups, but still over 40W in most cases.

So because modern American OBs set "due dates" at 40W0D _for everyone_ I refer to that as the "Stupid due date" - it is yet another non-evidence-based practice of American OBs.







: A Dr. Naegle picked that as average length in the 1800's - NOT based on research.


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## phatchristy (Jul 6, 2005)

Quote:


Originally Posted by *MegBoz* 







:
exactly.
I think the actual average gestation length in the US is now actually 38.5W. (I did a quick search for the article that was in the news recently, but didn't find it.)
Yes, exactly as you said - all those CS + induction skew the #s.







.

This is actually a VERY scary statistic.









My fourth was born at 38w4D but that was his decision, which I consider kind of flukey in a way. My first three were 41w3d and 40w3d (for second and third).

And, yeah I was VERY surprised and not mentally ready when I went into labor that early!


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## womenswisdom (Jan 5, 2008)

The length of uncomplicated human gestation.
Mittendorf R, Williams MA, Berkey CS, Cotter PF.
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
"By retrospective exclusion of gestations with known obstetric complications, maternal diseases, or unreliable menstrual histories, we found that uncomplicated, spontaneous-labor pregnancy in private-care white mothers is longer than Naegele's rule predicts. For primiparas, the median duration of gestation from assumed ovulation to delivery was 274 days, significantly longer than the predicted 266 days (P = .0003). For multiparas, the median duration of pregnancy was 269 days, also significantly longer than the prediction (P = .019). Moreover, the median length of pregnancy in primiparas proved to be significantly longer than that for multiparas (P = .0032). Thus, this study suggests that when estimating a due date for private-care white patients, one should count back 3 months from the first day of the last menses, then add 15 days for primiparas or 10 days for multiparas, instead of using the common algorithm for Naegele's rule."

So, for first-timers (primiparas), the average length is 41w1d and for multiparas (second or more birth), the length is 40w3d.


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## Ruthla (Jun 2, 2004)

I have to wonder where they got that statistic- and if it came from a different way of calculating gestational age.

If you're counting 38 weeks from CONCEPTION, which makes more sense anyway, then yeah, the average should be around 38 weeks. But if you're doing it the (IMO stupid) way of counting from the last menstrual cycle, then that number needs to be 40 weeks.

Alternatively, the OB could have been talking about his or her own practice. If the dr is one who pushes inductions "because mom is tired of being pg" starting at 37 weeks, then it's very likely that most births happen before 38 weeks in that particular office!


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## Jilian (Jun 16, 2003)

BS! But coming from an OB I'd believe that maybe that was _his_ personal statistic. As a labor doula I have yet to see any of my clients go before 40 weeks. Seriously. I think on average most women start labor on their own (without intervention) between 39-41 weeks. Due date accuracy also plays a big role, and so many women seem to have due dates that were off. Especially in the hospital setting where they frequently prefer to use u/s to give a due date over a woman's actual LMP date.


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